JPMorgan Chase's, Anthony Chan Discuses Economic Growth in 2019
A couple weeks ago, Anthony Chan, the chief economist for JPMorgan Chase provided his perspective on the changing market while speaking at the Chicago Agent Magazine’s Accelerate Summit at the Chicago Merchandise Mart.
In his presentation, he was "confidently forecasting 2% economic growth in the year ahead and shooting down fears of a looming recession. Chan predicted the U.S. economy will grow in 2019, just not as rapidly as it did last year." according to Housing Wire's article, JPMorgan Chase chief economist bets against 2020 recession.
We agree that most economic factors are looking good going into 2019, while others need keeping an eye on.
Here are the most important points, as provided by Chan and reported by HousingWire
Residential construction averaged -0.2% year over year, Chan said, calling the data “not good, but not bad.” He predicted this number will drop slightly to -0.5% in 2019.
New home sales are performing well, up 3.7% month over month.
Existing home sales were down 1.2%, Chan said, explaining that is less important because existing home sales historically lag new homes sales.
“When mortgage rates come down, you don’t normally see the housing market reacting right away… In fact, on average, it’s almost more like two months,” he said. “Now, with mortgage rates going back, lower by 60 basis points, it’s starting to generate excitement.”
Chan also pointed to the upward direction of the National Association of Home Builders’ sentiment index as a positive sign.
“The builders nationally now are more optimistic; [the index] has risen in the last two months,” he said. “This makes me feel comfortable that the slippage on the mortgage rates is starting to help.”
Things are definitely looking different than a decade ago. A lot of Chan's confidence came down to his comment that in any year, the chance of recession is about 15%. [Original Article]
What are your thoughts? Is the economy looking steady going into 2019-2020?
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